Introduction
China has been a “hard target” for the Intelligence Community (IC) since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Escalating demand for assessments of China since the 2010s has spurred the IC to expand its analytical and collection efforts. Last year, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines identified China as the IC’s “unparalleled priority.” CIA Director William Burns asserted this year that his agency has more than doubled its budget for China-related intelligence collection, analysis, and operations during his tenure, extending work on China to “every corner of the CIA.”
Even as the IC buckles down on China work, warning signs are
emerging that the world is changing in ways that could disrupt
business as usual. Washington’s ability to anticipate developments in the US-China relationship and assess risks and threats to national security is likely to get harder. Amid heightened tensions with Washington, Beijing has redoubled
efforts to stiffen controls on information to prevent access by its potential adversaries.